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Prediction for CME (2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-18T09:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45144/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME first seen to the SE by STEREO A COR2 at 2026-03-18T09:23Z, as well as to the West in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is an M2.7 flare from Active Region 4392 (S16W05) which peaked at 2026-03-18T08:42Z. This flare could be seen in GOES SUVI 131, along with dimming and field line opening seen in GOES SUVI 195, 284 and STEREO A EUVI 195. The dimming feature appears to propagate towards the Northwest, suggesting possible deflection. | Arrival information: Sharp increase in B_total from already elevated ~20 nT (following the IPS at L1 as detected by ACE and DSCOVR at 2026-03-20T01:31Z) to ~36 nT. This arrival signature also includes sudden increase in solar wind speed from 450 to 550 km/s, in ion temperature from 20k to over 800k and in ion density from the already elevated 19 particles/cc to over 55 particles/cc. The shock seems to be followed by a flux rope starting at ~2026-03-21T02:18Z, with smoother rotation of magnetic field components and a drop in ion temperature and density. This arrival signature is associated with the arrival of CME 2026-03-18T09:23Z, simulated with an expected arrival at Missions Near Earth at 2026-03-20T17:24Z (+- 7 hours). Starting around 2026-03-21T11:45Z, there is an observed slow and smooth rise in B_total up to a peak of ~38.97nT at 2026-03-21T15:32Z with rotation in the magnetic field components, B_z largely northward. A further drop here in density alongside minimal change in solar wind speed and temperature indicate a likely merged second structure within this arrival, of which no current CME candidate exists following further analysis. A reverse shock is observed at 2026-03-21T19:10Z returning B_total to elevated background levels, prior to the separate start of coronal hole high speed stream with ID 2026-03-21T19:13:00-HSS-001.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T20:17Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-20T17:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME (Lucy, Europa Clipper, BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2026-03-18T13:48:10Z
## Message ID: 20260318-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

C-type CME detected by STEREO A / GOES / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2026-03-18T09:23Z.

Estimated speed: ~731 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 19/-6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect Lucy (glancing blow), Europa Clipper (glancing blow), BepiColombo, OSIRIS-APEX, and STEREO A (glancing blow).  The leading edge of the CME will reach BepiColombo at 2026-03-19T10:33Z and OSIRIS-APEX at 2026-03-21T07:08Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of the CME will reach Lucy at 2026-03-30T20:00Z, Europa Clipper at 2026-03-23T18:00Z, and STEREO A at 2026-03-20T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2026-03-20T16:52Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
https://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260318_134100_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2026-03-18T09:23:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.7 flare from Active Region 14392 (S16W05) with ID 2026-03-18T08:26:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2026-03-18T08:42Z.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Lead Time: 54.48 hour(s)
Difference: 2.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-18T13:48Z

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